Class 12 Conditional Probability Practice: Change the Sample Space

The word ‘given’ changes the group you are counting within. Many probability errors come from using the original total after new information has ruled outcomes out. Draw the restricted group before choosing a denominator.

Curriculum checked 2 October 2026 · original practice for selected skills.

Before you start

You will need: Fractions, equally likely outcomes and basic probability.

Attempt each task before opening a hint. If you need help, reveal the first hint, then the setup, then compare your written steps with the solution. Finish with the retests without referring back.

Three ideas to keep in view

P(A given B) is P(A and B) divided by P(B), provided P(B)>0. The denominator describes the information already given.

Independent events preserve probabilities when the other event is known. Mutually exclusive events with positive probabilities cannot be independent.

Reversing the condition usually changes the probability. Bayes reasoning includes both the likelihood of the observation and how common each source was before it.

Try the worked example first

M12-PROB-W1Restrict outcomesFocused practice

A fair die shows an even number. What is the probability that the result is greater than 3?

Need a starting hint?

Discard odd outcomes before counting.

Still stuck? Reveal the setup

The remaining outcomes are 2, 4 and 6.

Show worked solution
  1. Restrict the sample space

    Three equally likely outcomes remain.

  2. Count successes

    Two of them, 4 and 6, exceed 3.

Answer: 2/3

Before moving on: can you explain why your method works, as well as give the answer?

Your turn: three different checks

Write a method as well as an answer. The tasks change the reasoning, not just the numbers.

M12-PROB-Q1Use an intersectionFocused practice

P(A∩B)=0.18 and P(B)=0.30. Find P(A given B).

Need a starting hint?

The given event determines the denominator.

Still stuck? Reveal the setup

Divide 0.18 by 0.30.

Show worked solution
  1. Apply the definition

    P(B) is positive, so the conditional probability exists.

  2. Calculate

    18/30 simplifies to 3/5.

Answer: 0.6

Before moving on: can you explain why your method works, as well as give the answer?

M12-PROB-Q2Check independenceFocused practice

P(A)=0.4, P(B)=0.5 and P(A∩B)=0.2. Are A and B independent?

Need a starting hint?

Compare the intersection with the product.

Still stuck? Reveal the setup

Compute 0.4 × 0.5.

Show worked solution
  1. Product test

    The product is 0.2, equal to the intersection.

  2. Interpret

    Knowing B does not change the probability of A.

Answer: Yes, they are independent.

Before moving on: can you explain why your method works, as well as give the answer?

M12-PROB-Q3Reverse a conditionFocused practice

Choose bag A with probability 1/4 and bag B with probability 3/4. A has 3 red and 1 blue ball; B has 1 red and 3 blue balls. Draw one ball at random from the chosen bag. Find P(red given A). If the ball is red, what is P(A given red)? Explain what each denominator counts.

Need a starting hint?

The chance of red from bag A differs from the chance that a red ball came from A.

Still stuck? Reveal the setup

A contributes (1/4)(3/4)=3/16 to red; B contributes (3/4)(1/4)=3/16.

Show worked solution
  1. Start with bag A

    Given A, only its four balls matter. Three are red, so P(red given A)=3/4.

  2. Count both ways to draw red

    Multiply each bag's chance of being chosen by its chance of giving red, then add.

    P(R)=14⋅34+34⋅14=38P(R)=\frac14\cdot\frac34+\frac34\cdot\frac14=\frac38
  3. Now start with the observed red ball

    Among all red draws, A contributes 3/16 out of a total 3/8. The denominator is the chance of red from either bag.

    P(A∣R)=3/163/8=12P(A\mid R)=\frac{3/16}{3/8}=\frac12

Answer: P(red given A)=3/4; P(A given red)=1/2.

Before moving on: can you explain why your method works, as well as give the answer?

Catch a likely mistake

A tempting claim: “P(A given B) always equals P(B given A).”

The two conditions restrict the sample space differently.

Close the examples and try again

These changed questions test whether you can reconstruct the method. If you use a hint, record where you got stuck and retry later. Completing this small set does not establish full chapter mastery.

M12-PROB-R1New restrictionIndependent retest

A fair die result is greater than 3. What is the probability that it is odd? List the remaining outcomes and explain your denominator.

Need a starting hint?

First remove outcomes that do not fit the given condition.

Still stuck? Reveal the setup

The remaining outcomes are 4, 5 and 6.

Show worked solution
  1. Restrict the sample space

    Given a result greater than 3, only 4, 5 and 6 remain. These three outcomes are equally likely.

  2. Count odd outcomes

    Only 5 is odd, so there is one success out of three remaining outcomes.

Answer: 1/3

Could you solve this without the earlier example? If not, revisit the first line where you got stuck.

M12-PROB-R2Changed intersectionIndependent retest

P(C∩D)=0.12 and P(D)=0.4. Find P(C given D).

Need a starting hint?

Use D in the denominator.

Still stuck? Reveal the setup

0.12/0.4.

Show worked solution
  1. Set up

    The intersection is the part of D also in C.

  2. Divide

    12/40=3/10.

Answer: 0.3

Could you solve this without the earlier example? If not, revisit the first line where you got stuck.

Choose the next useful step

If a retest exposed the same error, rewrite the first incorrect step and explain its correction aloud. If both were independent, return to a mixed exercise or a missed paper question. A parent can ask what changed in the method rather than only asking for the answer.

Frequently asked questions

Can I condition on an event of probability zero using this formula?

No. The elementary formula divides by the probability of the given event and requires it to be positive.

Can I print the questions and worked solutions separately?

Yes. Use the two print buttons above. The question sheet leaves working space and hides solutions; the worked-solutions option includes the solution steps. Your browser can save either view as a PDF.

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